DEMOGRAPHIC & MARKET ANALYSIS
Understanding our regional demographics is a key goal of this study effort. Population and median household incomes for the region and in the neighborhoods affected by the grocery store closures highlight critical issues for business sustainability.
Retailers are constantly assessing regional market conditions for proposed and existing stores utilizing market data similar to the ERSI profile which University of Illinois Extension compiled for this study.
Our regional population base is a major consideration as customers commute into the Peoria market for shopping. Below are general takeaways from the demographic and market analyses that may play a role in the changing grocery retail landscape.
Tazewell County is growing at a much faster rate than Peoria County.
Within the 10 County Intra-region (Figure 1), Peoria and Tazewell counties continue to be major population centers. From 1950-2010, both these counties constituted approximately 50% of the regional population (Figure 3). Though Peoria has steadily continued to gain people (24% of the regional population in 1900 to 27% in 2010), Tazewell County’s population change has been more pronounced, from 9% of the regional population in 1900 to 20% in 2010. (Visual Figure 3)
In this study, we looked at Greater Peoria Region as the neighborhoods impacting grocery shopping patterns, which included portions of City of Peoria and East Peoria as shown in this map. Figure 4
The population has declined in the East Bluff and South Side neighborhoods.
The East Bluff neighborhood experienced a higher population decline than the South Side neighborhood. From 2010 to 2016, within the Greater Peoria Region (Figure 6), the total population of the East Bluff neighborhood decreased by 3.4% (from 12,259 to 11,842 residents), compared to the South Side neighborhood, which experienced a 0.53% decrease in its overall residents (12,837 to 12,769 residents).
Population Pyramid for East Bluff and South Side Neighborhoods Figure 9
The East Bluff and South Side Neighborhoods, like the Greater Peoria Region, have fewer men than women (Figures 7, 10, and 11). The population pyramids for these neighborhoods are almost the shape of a “pyramid” - a broad base and narrow top (Figure 11), indicating a “growing and younger population;” East Bluff has more “working age group individuals” -30-34 years of age, compared to South Side, which has a growing population of “5 years and under” age group.
In 2016, 22,305 people in the study area had income below the poverty level. The poverty rate of 22.7% is higher than the national, state and county average. (figure 14) Approximately 45.1% of Southside residents and 23.2% of East Bluff residents had income below poverty level.
Across the region, children have higher poverty rates. Even though the overall poverty rate for the region is 22.7% (ACS 2012-2016), 34.3% of children under the age of 18 were living in poverty. Likewise, the poverty rates for children of East Bluff and Southside Neighborhoods are elevated as well - 60.9% of South Side children under the age of 18 years of have the highest poverty rate compared with national, state, county and local averages. (pg. 16, 17 2018 Grocery Store Access Study)
In 2016, across all geographies (United States, Illinois, Peoria County, Tazewell County, the Peoria/East Peoria targeted study area, East Bluff, and South Side neighborhoods), the median income of Tazewell County residents at $60,178, was the highest. Residents of the Peoria/East Peoria Study Area, East Bluff, and South Side neighborhoods had median incomes less than the national, state, and county averages (Table 13). In 2016, the median income of South Side residents at $22,247, was a third of the median income of Tazewell County residents. Table 13 also shows that for almost the same number of households (approx. 4,500 total households), the median income of South Side residents was almost 40% less than that of East Bluff residents. (Table 13: Median household income 2012-2016)
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
SNAP is a federal program to supplement and improve nutrition needs of low-income people by increasing their food purchasing power. In fiscal year 2016, SNAP assisted nearly 44.2% million people; about 14% of the total U.S. population, about one in seven Americans (USDA).
Within the Peoria/East Peoria targeted study area, 21.6% (8,866) of all households received SNAP benefits, which is higher than the national (13%), state (13.3%), and county (Peoria at 14.1% and Tazewell at 9.7%) averages
(Figure 16: Households receiving SNAP, by Percentage, (2012-2016). Likewise, about 42% of all South Side and 26% of all East Bluff residents received SNAP (Figure 16), which is higher than the national, state, county, and local average.
Of all households receiving food stamps, 65% of South Side and 58% of East Bluff residents were below the poverty level (U.S.-50.3%, Illinois-49.1%, Peoria County-56.3%, Tazewell County-41.1% and Peoria/East Peoria targeted study area -55.5%)
Of all households receiving food stamps, 54% of South Side and 60% of East Bluff residents had children under 18 years of age (U.S.-53.0%, Illinois-52.0%, Peoria County-49.1%, Tazewell County-55.3% and Greater Peoria Region-50.4%), (pgs. 19 & 20 Grocery Store Access Study)
Food Expenditures at Home Table
Table 14 provides a more detailed look at average estimated household spending on retail goods and services. As with the Household Budget Expenditures, spending in each category is indexed against the national average. The average expenditures in the food sub-categories in each geographic area mirror the estimates in the household budget expenditures table.
Surplus & Gaps in Retail Grocery
In the ten-county region surrounding Peoria, in 2017 there was an estimated retail surplus of $399 million for grocery stores and a retail gap of $23.1 million for specialty stores.
For the Peoria region, including East Peoria there was an estimated $10.7 million retail gap for grocery stores and a retail surplus of $3.3 million for specialty food stores.
It should be noted that these estimates have likely changed given the recent closures of grocery stores within the area. Additional information about the methodology that ESRI uses to create the Retail MarketPlace Profile is available at the following link: https://support.esri.com/en/white-paper/3569
This map shows the location of grocery stores and superstores within the study area. In total there are eight grocers within the South Side neighborhood and four stores selling groceries within the East Bluff neighborhood. When analyzing a ring within 5 miles of the two neighborhoods there are a total of 44 grocery stores and five superstores. (Figure 22: Location of Grocery Stores and Superstores Source: ESRI Business Analyst 2017) incorporate food pantry locations on same map http://www.peoriafoodbank.org/agency-locator/
It’s important to note that the regional market is further impacted by the labor market. For the 98,622 workers who are employed in peoria County, approximately 30% live in Peoria City, small percentages are from East Peoria, Pekin, Washington, and Morton with a large percentage 51% workers are coming into Peoria from the larger region to work. Daytime population increases by 15,759 workers. (pg. 23 2018 Grocery Store Access Study)
Tapestry segments are a classification of household types. According to ESRI, Tapestry Segmentation “provides an accurate, detailed description of America’s neighborhoods—U.S. residential areas are divided into 67 distinctive segments based on their socioeconomic and demographic composition.”
Each segment has full profile that includes demographic information and market preferences. The segment profiles can be further explored at the ESRI Demographics website. Below are the top Tapestry Segmentations for this study area.
Regional Study Area: Rustbelt Traditions
The backbone of older industrial cities in states surrounding the Great Lakes, Rustbelt Traditions residents are a mix of married-couple families and singles living in older developments of single-family homes. While varied, the work force is primarily white collar, with a higher concentration of skilled workers in manufacturing, retail trade, and health care. Rustbelt Traditions represents a large market of stable, hard-working consumers with modest incomes but an average net worth of nearly $400,000. Family oriented, they value time spent at home. Most have lived, worked, and played in the same area for years.
East Bluff: Traditional Living
For the East Bluff, Traditional Living Segmentation ranked highest and is described as residents who live primarily in low-density, settled neighborhoods in the Midwest. The households are a mix of married-couple families and singles. Many families encompass two generations who have lived and worked in the community; their children are likely to follow suit. The manufacturing, retail trade, and health care sectors are the primary sources of employment for these residents. This is a younger market—beginning householders who are juggling the responsibilities of living on their own or a new marriage, while retaining their youthful interests in style and fun.
South Side: Modest Income Homes
In the South Side Neighborhood - Modest Income Homes Tapestry Segmentation provides the following description Families in this urban segment may be nontraditional; however, their religious faith and family values guide their modest lifestyles. Many residents are primary caregivers to their elderly family members. Jobs are not always easy to come by, but wages and salary income are still the main sources of income for most households. Reliance on Social Security and public assistance income is necessary to support single-parent and multigenerational families. High poverty rates in this market make it difficult to make ends meet. Nonetheless, rents are relatively low, public transportation is available, and Medicaid can assist families in need.
Factors Supporting and Hindering Grocery Retail in the Impacted Neighborhoods
[Blurb concluding the above factors - what does that all mean for the impacted neighborhoods]
Factors supporting Grocery Retail
Net Job Inflow for the targeted study area of Peoria/East Peoria 20,717 workers who live in other areas are coming into the community to work
Market analysis illustrates gap in speciality food market as an opportunity
Strong preferences indicated by Grocery Store Access Resident Survey respondents for neighborhood market
Rustbelt Traditional market segmentation with strong ties to the area.
Limited access to fresh foods
Limited means for transportation
Growing population of “5 years and under” age group in South Side Neighborhood
Factors that may hinder Grocery Retail in the Impacted Neighborhoods
Limited transportation alternatives
Loss in overall population
Saturation of the grocery retail market at the regional level
Lower than national averages in household budget expenditure for food (both food at home and food away from home)
Modest Home market segmentation - many residents are primary caregivers to elderly family members, reliance on Social Security and public assistance income is necessary to support single parent and multigenerational households.
Utilization of SNAP benefits higher than state and national levels
In the East Bluff neighborhood in 2017, there was an estimated retail surplus of $19.5 million for grocery stores and a retail gap of $943,000 in specialty food stores (typical store is 1 million in annual sales)
In the South Side neighborhood in 2017, there was a retail gap of $3.4 million for grocery stores and a retail gap of $636,000 in specialty food stores.